According to Ki Young Ju, the BTC market is only fine if the widely referenced 4-year halving cycle theory is wrong. Source: Ki Young Ju post on X dated Nov 3, 2025. The 4-year cycle thesis stems from Bitcoin’s programmed block reward halving every 210,000 blocks that cuts new BTC issuance by 50% on a roughly four-year schedule. Source: Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto, 2008. The 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, a structural supply change that traders monitor when evaluating cycle-driven price regimes. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide on subsidy and halving rules.

According to the source, Bitcoin mining is energy-intensive and concentrated in key grids like Texas, where demand response programs can rapidly curtail miners, affecting network hashrate until difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Electric Reliability Council of Texas; Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto. The April 2024 halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, lifting breakeven thresholds and making electricity price spikes a direct risk to miner margins and uptime, source: Bitcoin protocol at block 840000; Hashrate Index miner breakeven analyses. Traders can monitor miner balance changes and miner-to-exchange flows as a gauge of potential BTC supply from operators under margin stress, source: Glassnode Research miner net position change metrics. Power price proxies such as Henry Hub natural gas futures and ERCOT real-time power prices help anticipate miner profitability shifts that can influence the hashrate growth trajectory, source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; ERCOT market data. Cambridge data shows geographic and energy-mix shifts since China’s 2021 mining restrictions, highlighting varied carbon intensity by region and policy risk for mining equities and BTC sentiment, source: Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance Bitcoin Mining Map and CBECI. Mining curtailment revenues and power credits can materially affect public miner cash flows, altering sell discipline and equity beta to BTC, which traders should reflect in positioning, source: Riot Platforms SEC filings; ERCOT demand response program documentation.

According to Milk Road, Adam Back discussed key trading topics in a recent podcast, including the impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, increasing institutional adoption, and current crypto market trends (source: Milk Road Twitter, May 23, 2025). Adam Back emphasized that the recent halving has tightened Bitcoin supply, contributing to heightened price volatility and trading volume. He also highlighted the ongoing influx of institutional capital, which is supporting long-term bullish momentum across major cryptocurrencies. Traders should note that Back pointed to the growing influence of macroeconomic factors and regulatory clarity as critical drivers for Bitcoin and altcoin prices in 2025. These insights offer actionable guidance for navigating Bitcoin trading and anticipating market shifts (source: Milk Road Twitter, May 23, 2025).